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August 24, 2009
What Paul Stanley Did to House Republicans—And You And Me
The 2008 elections gave Tennessee Republicans the barest of majorities in the state House of Representatives: 50-49. And even then, they were not able to elect a Speaker as a caucus, since Kent Williams colluded with Democrats to make himself Speaker, using all 49 of their votes plus his one.
So the prospect of losing the majority outright, before the General Assembly is through a single two-year cycle, has to be crushing to members of the state GOP. But that is exactly what could happen if things aren't timed exactly right. And it is a fellow Republican that did this to them. And it wasn't Kent Williams.
Paul Stanley, the former state Senator who resigned last month after a scandal, once also served in the Tennessee House of Representatives. (He ran for the Senate when Curtis Person retired.) He therefore served alongside the members he has ended up putting in a real bind.
Rep. Brian Kelsey is running for Stanley's old Senate seat. The election has been set: a primary on October 13, and a general election on December 1. The election belongs to Kelsey, as no one has stepped up to run against him, to date.
That puts Kelsey's House seat square in the spotlight. Whether through the nefarious practice of gerrymandering or otherwise, the district is considered solidly Republican. State election laws say that if a seat becomes vacant less than one year before its regularly scheduled next election (November 2, 2010), the county commission must appoint an interim representative. And here's the rub: the Shelby County Commission, of which a majority are Democrats, would likely appoint a Democrat to that seat if Brian Kelsey waits until December 1 to resign his House seat.
Waiting until it's official would be, under most circumstances, the correct thing for Kelsey to do. And as Tom Humphrey points out, another factor is the outcome of the District 62 special election. If a Republican wins that seat, their majority is "solid" regardless of what happens in Germantown.
Would it be right for the Shelby County Commission to (temporarily) overrule the reasonably expected will of the 83rd District and possibly affect the outcome of floor votes in the next session? That's a question I haven't seen answered, and probably because anyone who's written about this subject is realistic enough to just ignore it. The commissioners will act like so many financial traders, and appoint a Democrat for that illusory short-term gain.
Special elections are costly. Ideally, Kelsey's seat would be filled by appointment. But too many people see the stakes as being too high to just let that happen. Paul Stanley's legacy not only leaves us pondering the worst side of our state government (to be fair, he's not alone); but it will help bring out the worst in those who will work the machinery to replace his replacement. That is bad for all of us.
(HT: Post Politics)
Political News , State House Elections , State Senate Elections | By joe lance | 7:18 AM