November 3, 2008
Just for fun: predictions for Election 2008
Here are my humble, futile projections for Tuesday's contests. Candidates on the losing end of these should take heart: I'm wrong more often than I'm right, or 50/50 at best. But that hasn't stopped me yet.
Chattanooga City Council, District 5: Russell Gilbert defeats Joe Rowe, I'll say by 52-45, with an errant 3 percent going to Jeffrey Wilson, in surely one of the largest gross vote totals in Chattanooga municipal election history.
Hamilton County School Board, District 4: Although it's looking good for Gregg Juster, the unusually high turnout could backfire on him. Still, because of his second-place showing in the original election for this seat in August, and the accompanying funds and name recognition, he may pull it off.
I'm not even going to comment on the individual local races for Tennessee House of Representatives. All incumbents will obviously win.
Likewise, state Senator Andy Berke will score a lopsided victory for a full term in office.
Oh, and so will U.S. Representative Zach Wamp handily win his next term (which he will likely spend running for Governor). And, yawn, so will U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander. (A good friend and I were going over her precinct's sample ballot today, and she remarked that she hadn't even heard that the Democrats were running someone against Lamar. Granted, she's a staunch Republican, but Bob Tuke has had very little exposure around here, and it shows.)
Now, before we get to the big one (yes, of course I mean liquor-by-the-drink in Lakesite), let's look at the General Assembly, particularly the Senate. Sen. Mike Williams will edge out Mike Faulk and keep the District 4 seat. Ken Yager will defeat Becky Ruppe and give the Republicans a coveted spot in District 12. Eric Stewart will keep District 14 alive for the Democrats. Sen. Jim Tracy will hold on in District 16; Sen. Diane Black likewise in District 18.
District 22, I hate to say, will probably go to Tim Barnes. But the Democrats have sown some bad karma here. (I know, I know, karma doesn't work like that. Bear with me.) It all therefore comes down to District 26, doesn't it? Wait -- not by my count. I have 17 Republicans without District 26. If they get it, it will solidify their majority. If not, it will be 15-17-1, with the 1 Independent owing some big payback to Democrats. Ron Ramsey will retain the Speaker and Lieutenant Governor positions.
The House, on the other hand, stays with the Democrats.
The U.S. Congress will tip slightly more Democratic, in both houses, but I honestly haven't kept up with any research to back up that claim. (And remember, this post doesn't count as serious.)
And finally -- no, wait. Liquor referenda. Will the various measures to allow alcoholic beverages on or off premises prevail in these several Hamilton County towns? Beats me. I'll drink to whichever ones lighten up, though.
Yes, I think U.S. Senators Barack Obama and Joe Biden will be victorious. But that's not without a considerable and noteworthy effort by Senator McCain and Governor Palin. And it is my sincere hope that no matter who wins, we will all put aside our differences and work together to keep this nation strong, prosperous, respectable, and free.
There. Let's see how I did.
I cannot speak to the local races, but I have to second your closing thoughts. Let's hope that we can all pick new favorite colors after this election--GREEN, perhaps?
Posted by: Eric Martinsen at November 4, 2008 2:46 PM
I am glad you were wrong on the state House results!
Posted by: Gerald McCormick at November 5, 2008 8:48 PM