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October 31, 2008
Betting against the House changing hands (updated)
The Tennessee House of Representatives is undergoing far less scrutiny than is the Senate during this election season. In fairness to political writers across the state, that would likely not be the case if the balance of political party power were closer to being tipped. Imagine that the House contained 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 1 Independent. You'd be hearing a lot more about it.
As it is, there are 53 Democrats and 46 Republicans. A great many of these are safe in their carefully drawn districts. Quite a few didn't even draw an opponent. (For example, in the Hamilton County delegation, which also covers Rhea County, only one Representative (JoAnne Favors) has even nominal opposition in the general, and only one (Jim Cobb) had a serious challenge in the primaries.)
Therefore, some of the only chances for upheaval are in open seats, such as District 40, which has been represented by retiring veteran legislator Frank Buck, a Democrat. No matter which of the three candidates wins, Rep. Buck's departure leaves a deficit in the area of ethics reform that a freshman is unlikely to reclaim for constituents.
Two other seats are open because sitting Republican members chose to run for the Senate. In the Maryville area, Rep. Doug Overbey will likely become Sen. Doug Overbey after having defeated incumbent (and fellow Republican) Sen. Raymond Finney in the primary. But there is only one candidate for Overbey's House seat, Republican Bob Ramsey, so we know how that will turn out.
Rep. Delores Gresham is locked in a heated battle for the District 26 Senate seat. Her House District 94 position does have a couple of candidates vying for it: Democrat John Dowdy, and Republican Barrett Rich. The GOP appears to have the advantage in this one, too.
A handful of other retirements, along with a few seats where an incumbent faces a viable challenger, are expertly reviewed by Truman Bean Ken Whitehouse of the Nashville Post and City Paper in the latter part of his comprehensive legislative election roundup. (UPDATE: the link points to Truman Bean's blog, where I mistakenly missed a hyperlink to the actual source. My apologies for the misattribution.)
Bottom line: even if Republicans pick up a seat or two, the Democratic Party will retain a majority in the House.
State House Elections | By joe lance | 10:01 AM