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August 4, 2008

Endorsements, recommendations, and predictions for August 7

The Chattanooga Times Free Press, along with countless other papers in the land, has a tradition of publishing endorsements on the Sunday before any Election Day. The Free Press editorial page even mocks up a ballot and darkens the ovals beside its recommended names -- presumably this is to aid those readers who experience difficulty comprehending the text in the editorial column itself. (I'm half-joking, of course. I do believe that graphics almost always make things clearer.)

TennesseeTicket.com will offer you something more: in some cases, I will make recommendations where no candidate deserves an outright ringing endorsement. And on top of that, I will post my predictions of each contested race's outcome. (This latter extra is speculation only, and is just for fun.)

TENNESSEE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

UNITED STATES SENATE
Mark E. Clayton
Gary G. Davis
Kenneth Eaton
Leonard D. Ladner
Wm Mike Padgett
Robert D. Tuke - Endorsed
Write-in

Prediction: Bob Tuke, but you wouldn't guess that by just looking around here. And, I reserve the right to update this as the week progresses. It may be close, with Mike Padgett as the possible winner.


UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 3rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Doug Vandagriff - Recommended
Write-in

TENNESSEE SENATE, 10th SENATORIAL DISTRICT
Andy Berke - Endorsed
Write-in

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 26th REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Write-in

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 27th REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Write-in

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 28th REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Tommie F. Brown - Endorsed
Write-in

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 29th REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
JoAnne Favors - Recommended
Write-in

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 30th REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Write-in

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 31st REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Write-in

TENNESSEE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

UNITED STATES SENATE
Lamar Alexander - Recommended
Write-in

UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 3rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Teresa Sheppard
Zach Wamp
Write-in

Prediction: Zach Wamp

TENNESSEE SENATE, 10th SENATORIAL DISTRICT
Oscar Brown
Basil Marceaux Sr.
Write-in

Prediction: Oscar Brown

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 26th REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Gerald McCormick - Endorsed
Write-in

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 27th REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Richard L. Floyd - Recommended
Write-in

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 28th REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Write-in

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 29th REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Basil Marceaux Jr.
Write-in

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 30th REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Vince Dean
Write-in

TENNESSEE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 31st REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Jim Cobb
Jim Vincent - Recommended
Write-in

Prediction: Jim Vincent will win reelection to his former seat by default after winning in this primary. (To my knowledge, no independent candidate has qualified; but the deadline is August 21st. Correct me if I'm wrong.)

HAMILTON COUNTY GENERAL ELECTION

ASSESSOR OF PROPERTY
Bill Bennett (Rep) - Recommended
Write-in

SHERIFF
Greg Beck (Dem) - Recommended
Jim Hammond (Rep)
Tim Akins (Ind)
Jim Winters (Ind)
Write-in (note: Fred Fuson is running a registered write-in campaign)

Prediction: Jim Hammond will win, and I also caution that someday we could learn more about this candidate that may cause some voters to regret their decision. I agree with Harry Austin's Chattanooga Times editorial in that Hammond's experience clearly overshadows that of the others in this race; but I submit that judgment and character must be considered in addition. Plus, I just can't bring myself to vote for a hyper-authoritarian like Hammond seems to be.

SCHOOL BOARD, DISTRICT 1
Rhonda Thurman
Write-in

SCHOOL BOARD, DISTRICT 2
Chip Baker
Joe Dumas - Endorsed
Write-in

Prediction: Joe Dumas in an upset! We'll see.

SCHOOL BOARD, DISTRICT 4
Gregg Juster - Recommended
Debra L. Matthews
Kenneth Simpson
Write-in

Prediction: Debra Matthews, but by a very slim margin

SCHOOL BOARD, DISTRICT 7
Kevin Burke II (note: is not actively seeking the post)
Michael Dzik - Recommended
Linda Mosley
Write-in

Prediction: No earthly idea. It all comes down to whether Mosley's funding and (slight) endorsement advantages can beat Dzik's ground organization. Your thoughts?

TENNESSEE JUDICIAL RETENTION QUESTIONS

This system of using the ballot to retain appointed judges is convoluted, confusing, and in need of correction. I will not make any recommendations here, because I know far too little about each judge's record. I'm almost inclined to vote "No" on the Court of Criminal Appeals and Supreme Court members, based solely on my position against capital punishment; but how do I know which judges are on my side? The Court of Appeals, which hears civil cases, doesn't present the same challenge. Use your best judgment, so to speak.

Prediction: All seven appellate court judges up for a retention vote will be retained.

Hamilton County Elections , State House Elections , State Senate Elections , US House Elections , US Senate Elections | By joe lance | 12:22 PM

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Comments

The only prediction I that I disagree with is the Vincent vs. Cobb. I think Cobb will take it. He has done a good job pulling people from all the counties he represents. Vincent is only strong in Hamilton.

I am pulling for Linda Mosley. I wish I would have met her 5 months ago. She is the right choice for #7.

Posted by: gid at August 4, 2008 1:23 PM

Oh wait! I did not see your prediction on district 4. Juster is going to win that one.

Posted by: gid at August 4, 2008 2:56 PM

I hate to say this, and it may sound awful, but I have to vote for Hammond in the Sheriff's race strictly for his ability to speak correctly. I've read several of Beck's written statements, and my fourth grade cousin writes better than he does.

Anyways, moving on....

District 7 - my name is on the ballot, and I spend 95% of my time inside the district. My business is in the district. I know Linda Mosley personally, and I do not know Michael Dzik personally.

Michael Dzik has completely surprised me with his ability to run a grassroots campaign. It has worked very well, and if all the people who say they support him will vote, he'll win.

Linda on the other hand has run a more traditional "power structure" campaign. Her supporters are a group of "who's who" in the area. Not only does County Commissioner Larry Henry support her, current School Board candidate Joe Conner does as well (I'm not sure if that's been made public, but he does...).

Anyways, if Michael gets the people out to vote, he'll win by 5 percentage points or more. I just question whether all the people with his yard signs will actually show up to vote.

I have not endorsed either candidate. I do not plan to endorse either candidate. Too be honest, I'm not completely pleased with either one of them.

Posted by: Kevin at August 4, 2008 10:51 PM

Slick, well-spoken, authoritarian, power structure, questionable connections, noted partisan politician. Hammond would be bad for Hamilton County. Isn't that what we need to get away from?

I have to go with Greg Beck for Sheriff based solely on character and seeing his family around him. And he has more than enough experience to be the top law enforcement officer in the county. Don't fall for the 'teacher'

Dzik is a good guy.

Mike Padgett is a good guy.

Berke is a good guy.

Posted by: bd at August 6, 2008 12:30 AM

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