Who�s Headed for Washington? Breaking down the 2006 federal midterm primary elections

« Corker Wins.. | Home | The Long Arm of the Law »

June 21, 2006

Who�s Headed for Washington? Breaking down the 2006 federal midterm primary elections

There are a few weeks left during which we can imagine that our ideal slate of candidates has been elected. It�s like those fantasy sports games, only with a different kind of �player� and possibly fewer performance-enhancing drugs. In the interest of stirring up the most enthusiasm for local elections, we�ll examine the federal offices first, then state, and save the county general analysis for the couple of weeks right before the election.

The GOP Senate primary: �Brilleary� vs. Corker, or a genuine three-way race?

Former U.S. Representative Ed Bryant has been here before. Four years ago, Bryant, one of the Newt Gingrich-led swarm that took control of the House in 1994, assumed that his party�s so-called �base� (also described as the socially conservative wing), would favor him in the predictably ill-attended primary election, and thus propel him to the auspicious Senate chamber. It turned out that he was wrong, and that the wealthy, well-financed moderate (by comparison, that is) Lamar Alexander won handily. Now Ed Bryant seeks the other Senate seat, which is being given up by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (presumably in preparation for a White House run in 2008). Early on, it appeared that former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker would be Bryant�s sole major rival, and that we would see a do-over of 2002.

But then two things happened that changed everything. Most importantly, another former member of the class of 1994 decided that he would like to be Senator, since he didn�t get to be Governor. Of course we�re talking about Van Hilleary, who won the GOP gubernatorial primary four years ago, but lost in a close race to Democrat Phil Bredesen. Van�s entrance caused a rift among the GOP�s right wing, and even strained the friendship he had shared with Congress buddy Ed. Moreover, the right wing views Corker as a moderate, and most pundits agreed that two self-styled conservatives would split the party�s base and thus give the perceived moderate an easy primary victory.

The other dynamic-bending occurrence was Corker�s insistent and�depending on whom you ask�more or less convincing argument that he, too, is a conservative. Three candidates, all similar enough on issue positions, but one has more campaign funds than the other two combined: this sounds like a Corker victory in the making. The election will obviously settle the question for certain, and one should be prepared for an all-out media blitz from all three candidates. Corker is a lock in Hamilton County (a senior congressional aide privately predicted his win here at 70 percent), and will likely win big in the Knoxville area, but the sprawling 7th remembers Bryant fondly, and Hilleary has been working both the middle and the East pretty hard. Nail-biters are good for turnout, and that�s a good thing.

The Democratic Senate nominee: Harold Ford, Jr.

Republican strategists at the highest levels are anxiously attempting to affix the �liberal� label to the photogenic Congressman from Memphis. Ask many a West Tennessee Democrat, however, and you�re likely to hear �he votes too often with the Republicans.� The liberal wing of the party on the left was outraged by an apparent crowning of Ford by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (headed by New York Senator Charles Schumer) that effectively shut out State Senator Rosalind Kurita (herself no San Francisco hippie) and led to her withdrawal. There are a few Democrats remaining on the primary ballot, but none has the support needed to mount a serious challenge. Ford will win the primary and will only after that be stretching to cover his reluctant base while reaching out to as many swing voters as he can.

The national parties and political analysts view Tennessee as the make-or-break state for a Democratic comeback or a GOP retention in the Senate. Make sure to do your turn in the spotlight by voting in this important primary election. It will be interesting to see what happens in November if the bulk of voters are given a choice between two relative moderates (Corker and Ford). Some may view it an opportunity to branch out and vote for a third party or independent candidate (the Green Party�s Chris Lugo and four independents would appreciate that), and others may be tempted to sit the election out. Don�t pout. Vote, and vote your conscience -- or as close as you can get with the candidates at hand.

The two open U.S. House seats: Opposites attract

Do get to know your Third District candidates so that you can nominate wisely (Democrats Brent Benedict and Terry Stulce; Republicans June Griffin, Charles Howard, Doug Vandagriff, and incumbent Zach Wamp); but, thanks to gerrymandering, don�t look for much to change in any congressional districts other than the First and the Ninth. The latter is open because the aforementioned Ford family member is leaving it to run for the Senate. The First District is up for grabs due to U.S. Representative Bill Jenkins� retirement.

One couldn�t find a more fitting pair of districts to study. Number Nine hugs the southwest corner of the state (just part of heavily populated Shelby County) and is Democratic, majority black, densely urban. Semi-rural and very hilly District One covers the narrow northeast finger of our long skinny state, and has almost never sent a Democrat to D.C. According to the historians, this district�s brand of Republicanism heralds straight back to when Abraham Lincoln was President; indeed, the area stayed loyal to the Union during the Civil War. These Republicans are somewhat different than today�s Santorum-style variety.

Each of these open seats has drawn a dizzying list of contenders, and it is no small task to understand the complexities of each race. Fortunately for those of us in Chattanooga, we can let others sort it out. Memphis alt-weekly editor and columnist Jackson Baker is in the process of profiling the District 9 candidates. Knoxville political columnist Frank Cagle has weighed in on those in the First, and I�m sure we�ll see more commentary as we near the big day.

Primary predictions

U.S. Senate

Democrat: Harold Ford, Jr.
Republican: Bob Corker

U.S. House of Representatives

District One

Democrat: Rick Trent
Republican: Richard Venable

District Two

Democrat: (not enough info)
Republican: Jimmy Duncan (incumbent)

District Three

Democrat: Terry Stulce
Republican: Zach Wamp (incumbent)

District Four

Democrat: Lincoln Davis (incumbent)
Republican: Alan Pedigo