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August 13, 2006
The Party of Lincoln
Was anyone else surprised by the GOP primary results in the Fourth Congressional District?
If you had asked me at any point before the election, I would have said that Alan Pedigo would have definitively secured the nomination on August 3.
Donald Strong, who ran a spirited campaign alongside Pedigo, sent an email that inquires thusly:
Tennessee's 4th congressional district shows 65,393 votes in Dem Primary for U.S. House and only 36,203 votes in Rep Primary for U.S. House..............The same voters from the 4th congressional district cast 68,166 votes in the republican primary for a republican senate candidate..........What happened to the other 32,000 republican U.S. House votes?
Well, my untrained eye would call this the same way that I've observed the last several elections in the Third: a lot of Democrats, especially in his home county of Hamilton, quietly support US Rep. Zach Wamp, and so they don't register a vote for any of the Democratic contenders on their primary ballot. Case in point: there were 28,746 votes cast in the Democratic primary for District 3, and 65,916 cast in the GOP race. In the Senate totals, the same counties* yielded 42,702 votes cast for Harold Ford or another Democrat, and 75,175 for the Republicans.
Strong's question, paraphrased for use in this district, becomes "what happened to the other 14,000 Democratic US House votes?" (42,702 - 28,746) The answer is, some voters will make a choice on one seat but not on another. The reasons can vary, to be sure, but it seems likely that one of two things happened: they didn't know enough about either Brent Benedict or Terry Stulce to make a choice, or they have no problem with the incumbent.
The discrepancy is certainly greater in the US Senate and District 4 US House Republican primaries. 32K is way more than 9500 (comparing district to district*); but since Congressman Lincoln Davis is quite conservative, and there were three lesser-known candidates vying for the GOP nod, it would appear that, among other factors, Davis has significant tacit support from 4th District Republican voters; or, you tell me what the deal is.
And again: how is it that Ken Martin won?
*Roane County is divided between Districts 3 and 4, but its countywide totals are included in each US Senate figure I list here. I was too lazy to dig down into the precinct results to properly weigh the county totals; plus, I don't have a spreadsheet program or other handy math tool on this machine.
Also, it looks like the records on the unofficial SOS PDF files do not take write-in votes into account. That may cut into these discrepancies somewhat, although it's safe to assume not by much.
US House Elections | By joe lance | 10:04 PM