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September 18, 2005
Bienvenue Philippe
I'm glad that people who know what they're doing are watching the oceanic and atmospheric developments. I looked at the satellite images a few days ago, and I was concerned about a formation that was, at the time, just north of Puerto Rico. It looked pre-cyclonic, to me.
I also saw a cluster of storms further to the south-southeast, off the Lesser Antilles, but it didn't seem to pack much of a punch.
This is where the experts come in. That more southern cluster of storms became Tropical Depression Seventeen, and, not much later, is now Tropical Storm Philippe.
However, I take a little pride in spotting the other one, even though I dismissed Seventeen, because the NHC is now discussing it as Depression Eighteen, and is currently forecasting it to become a tropical storm later today.
THE RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS EN ROUTE TO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS DIVERTED TO THE DEPRESSION...AND WE VERY MUCH APPRECIATE THE LAST MINUTE FLEXIBILITY OF THE AIRCREW. WHEN THEY FIRST GOT TO THE DEPRESSION...THEY DIDN'T FIND MUCH...INCLUDING ONLY 5 KT OF WEST WIND AND A CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ON THEIR SECOND PASS THROUGH THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTER HAD MIGRATED OR REDEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW TAKING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON THE FIRST FEW IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
This is the one that worried me, because it seems headed straight for The Bahamas, across South Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico.
I'll keep watching Philippe, and what will likely become Rita, and expect that the experts will as well.
Nature | By joe lance | 10:53 AM