Name Recognition in the Grand Divisions

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May 23, 2005

Name Recognition in the Grand Divisions

Adam Groves has a take on Sunday's CTFP Bob Corker article (his links work better than mine, as I've yet to figure out how to get to the "epaper.ardemgaz.com/WebChannel/.." links, so visit his site to view the full article).

Where are the GOP Senate candidates most recognized? It goes without saying that Bob Corker is well-known in the Chattanooga area. However, given his former position in state government, he obviously has friends in Nashville; and a Memphis GOP activist who supports him is quoted in the article. The Mayor of Knoxville has endorsed him. I don't know where the Far East stands.

More importantly, Thomas Frist, Jr., brother of the Senator whose open seat is being sought, has contributed to the Corker for Senate campaign. Even though Senator Frist is wisely not weighing in on the primary, there are implications brought about by this familial connection that cannot be ignored, notwithstanding the fact that each individual should make his or her own decisions in terms of supporting candidates. Those who remember the 1994 GOP Senate primary (I don't, as I was on a brief sojourn to Maryland) could be shocked at the fact that any Frist is supporting Corker, so interpret as you wish.

Rural West Tennessee (in particular the 7th District, now represented by Marsha Blackburn) is Bryant territory; and there are scattered cultural-conservative faithful elsewhere (at least in the blogosphere, as many of the Bryant supporters here hail from Nashville or Knoxville).

Beth Harwell represents a district in Nashville, and is of course known in diehard GOP circles as the former state party chair. Her reach seems the most limited, in a geographic sense or in terms of saturation.

Van Hilleary once represented an area quite close to Chattanooga (District 4) where I'm sure Corker's influence and recognition have spread following his successes as Mayor. Hilleary has since relocated to Rutherford County. He therefore holds down part of the middle. However, I think he comes to the race with the highest advantage in name recognition, since he prevailed in the 2002 primary (unlike Bryant) and narrowly lost to Phil Bredesen.

So far, the polls (straw and otherwise) report data extracted from an extremely narrow sample. I think some people are counting too much on the notion that GOP primary voters are pretty much exactly the same people who attend Lincoln Day Dinners. I contend that unless something very strange happens on the Democratic side in either the Gubernatorial or the Senate race, Democratic voters will face a choice in August 2006: either sit out the primary or ask for the GOP ballot. I would never encourage anyone to sit out an election, so that leaves me with one recommendation for Democrats. Your nominees will be Phil Bredesen and Harold Ford, Jr. (sorry, Senator Kurita). You could have a lot higher impact as a primary voter by helping choose the GOP nominee.

Bob Corker is still proving to me, though fairly quietly at the moment, that he's the best choice for Tennessee's next US Senator. What's your candidate doing?

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